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Abstract Modeling experiments and field campaigns have evaluated shallow convective mixing as a potential constraint on the low‐cloud climate feedback, which is critical for establishing climate sensitivity. Yet the apparent relationship between low‐cloud fraction and shallow convective mixing differs substantially among general circulation models (GCMs), large eddy simulations, and both remote sensing and in situ observations. Here, we consider how changes in GCMs' representations of subgrid‐scale vertical moist fluxes can alter the cloud‐mixing relationship. Using vertical profiles of water vapor isotope ratios (δD) to characterize the strength of shallow convective mixing in a manner that can be compared directly to satellite observations, we evaluate the cloud‐mixing relationship produced in tiered experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). From versions 5 to 6 of CAM, the most notable physics change is CLUBB, a scheme that unifies the representation of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence through a joint probability density function (PDF) for subgrid velocity and moisture. CLUBB reduces the covariance between low‐cloud fraction and shallow convective mixing, producing a bivariate distribution that is more similar in character to monthly averaged satellite observations. Using parameter sensitivity experiments, we argue that CLUBB's ability to simulate skewness in the distribution of vertical velocity produces more isolated but stronger moist updrafts, which reduce the grid‐mean low‐cloud fraction while maintaining efficient hydrological connectivity between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. These results suggest that mixing is not an effective predictor of low‐cloud feedback in GCMs with PDF closure schemes. 

The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide. Here, we present CO₂measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO₂concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial. The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ± 0.8 ppm within 55 ± 10 y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4. Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO₂are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH₄and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales. Furthermore, it suggests that anthropogenic CO₂uptake in the Southern Ocean may weaken with poleward strengthening westerlies today and into the future.